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A First Look at Predictability and Explainability of Pre-request Passenger Waiting Time in Ridesharing Systems

Wang, Jie, Wang, Guang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Passenger waiting time prediction plays a critical role in enhancing both ridesharing user experience and platform efficiency. While most existing research focuses on post-request waiting time prediction with knowing the matched driver information, pre-request waiting time prediction (i.e., before submitting a ride request and without matching a driver) is also important, as it enables passengers to plan their trips more effectively and enhance the experience of both passengers and drivers. However, it has not been fully studied by existing works. In this paper, we take the first step toward understanding the predictability and explainability of pre-request passenger waiting time in ridesharing systems. Particularly, we conduct an in-depth data-driven study to investigate the impact of demand&supply dynamics on passenger waiting time. Based on this analysis and feature engineering, we propose FiXGBoost, a novel feature interaction-based XGBoost model designed to predict waiting time without knowing the assigned driver information. We further perform an importance analysis to quantify the contribution of each factor. Experiments on a large-scale real-world ridesharing dataset including over 30 million trip records show that our FiXGBoost can achieve a good performance for pre-request passenger waiting time prediction with high explainability.


Driver Fatigue Prediction using Randomly Activated Neural Networks for Smart Ridesharing Platforms

Akula, Sree Pooja, Telukunta, Mukund, Nadendla, Venkata Sriram Siddhardh

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Drivers in ridesharing platforms exhibit cognitive atrophy and fatigue as they accept ride offers along the day, which can have a significant impact on the overall efficiency of the ridesharing platform. In contrast to the current literature which focuses primarily on modeling and learning driver's preferences across different ride offers, this paper proposes a novel Dynamic Discounted Satisficing (DDS) heuristic to model and predict driver's sequential ride decisions during a given shift. Based on DDS heuristic, a novel stochastic neural network with random activations is proposed to model DDS heuristic and predict the final decision made by a given driver. The presence of random activations in the network necessitated the development of a novel training algorithm called Sampling-Based Back Propagation Through Time (SBPTT), where gradients are computed for independent instances of neural networks (obtained via sampling the distribution of activation threshold) and aggregated to update the network parameters. Using both simulation experiments as well as on real Chicago taxi dataset, this paper demonstrates the improved performance of the proposed approach, when compared to state-of-the-art methods.


A Survey of Machine Learning-Based Ride-Hailing Planning

Wen, Dacheng, Li, Yupeng, Lau, Francis C. M.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ride-hailing is a sustainable transportation paradigm where riders access door-to-door traveling services through a mobile phone application, which has attracted a colossal amount of usage. There are two major planning tasks in a ride-hailing system: (1) matching, i.e., assigning available vehicles to pick up the riders, and (2) repositioning, i.e., proactively relocating vehicles to certain locations to balance the supply and demand of ride-hailing services. Recently, many studies of ride-hailing planning that leverage machine learning techniques have emerged. In this article, we present a comprehensive overview on latest developments of machine learning-based ride-hailing planning. To offer a clear and structured review, we introduce a taxonomy into which we carefully fit the different categories of related works according to the types of their planning tasks and solution schemes, which include collective matching, distributed matching, collective repositioning, distributed repositioning, and joint matching and repositioning. We further shed light on many real-world datasets and simulators that are indispensable for empirical studies on machine learning-based ride-hailing planning strategies. At last, we propose several promising research directions for this rapidly growing research and practical field.


Learning-based Online Optimization for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Fleet Control

Jungel, Kai, Parmentier, Axel, Schiffer, Maximilian, Vidal, Thibaut

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous mobility-on-demand systems are a viable alternative to mitigate many transportation-related externalities in cities, such as rising vehicle volumes in urban areas and transportation-related pollution. However, the success of these systems heavily depends on efficient and effective fleet control strategies. In this context, we study online control algorithms for autonomous mobility-on-demand systems and develop a novel hybrid combinatorial optimization enriched machine learning pipeline which learns online dispatching and rebalancing policies from optimal full-information solutions. We test our hybrid pipeline on large-scale real-world scenarios with different vehicle fleet sizes and various request densities. We show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art greedy, and model-predictive control approaches with respect to various KPIs, e.g., by up to 17.1% and on average by 6.3% in terms of realized profit.


Spatio-temporal Incentives Optimization for Ride-hailing Services with Offline Deep Reinforcement Learning

Wu, Yanqiu, Li, Qingyang, Qin, Zhiwei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A fundamental question in any peer-to-peer ride-sharing system is how to, both effectively and efficiently, meet the request of passengers to balance the supply and demand in real time. On the passenger side, traditional approaches focus on pricing strategies by increasing the probability of users' call to adjust the distribution of demand. However, previous methods do not take into account the impact of changes in strategy on future supply and demand changes, which means drivers are repositioned to different destinations due to passengers' calls, which will affect the driver's income for a period of time in the future. Motivated by this observation, we make an attempt to optimize the distribution of demand to handle this problem by learning the long-term spatio-temporal values as a guideline for pricing strategy. In this study, we propose an offline deep reinforcement learning based method focusing on the demand side to improve the utilization of transportation resources and customer satisfaction. We adopt a spatio-temporal learning method to learn the value of different time and location, then incentivize the ride requests of passengers to adjust the distribution of demand to balance the supply and demand in the system. In particular, we model the problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP).


Clustering Uber Rideshare Data - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

According to Gartner, by 2020, a quarter billion connected vehicles will form a major element of the Internet of Things. Connected vehicles are projected to generate 25GB of data per hour, which can be analyzed to provide real-time monitoring and apps, and will lead to new concepts of mobility and vehicle usage. Uber Technologies Inc is a peer-to-peer ride sharing platform. Uber platform connects the cab drivers who can drive to the customer location. Uber uses machine learning, from calculating pricing to finding the optimal positioning of cars to maximize profits.


Here's To Drinking Safely With AI!

#artificialintelligence

That may seem a reasonable rate, but many people can't stop there. Serious health and social problems emerge around binge or excessive drinking: illness, crime, traffic accidents, addiction, etc. Alcohol is a factor in 5.3 percent of all deaths worldwide. There is increasing attention on machine learning, deep learning, IoT and computer vision technologies in attempts to reduce the damage done by alcohol and improve the safety of drinkers. AI-powered models can ensure alcohol purity, preventively monitor and assess human behaviours related to drinking, and generate support and services for addicted, intoxicated or unconsciousness people. For generations, Chinese Moatai has been a deeply-loved, top-level distilled liquor.


A Distributed Model-Free Algorithm for Multi-hop Ride-sharing using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Singh, Ashutosh, Alabbasi, Abubakr, Aggarwal, Vaneet

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growth of autonomous vehicles, ridesharing systems, and self driving technology will bring a shift in the way ride hailing platforms plan out their services. However, these advances in technology coupled with road congestion, environmental concerns, fuel usage, vehicles emissions, and the high cost of the vehicle usage have brought more attention to better utilize the use of vehicles and their capacities. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-hop ride-sharing (MHRS) algorithm that uses deep reinforcement learning to learn optimal vehicle dispatch and matching decisions by interacting with the external environment. By allowing customers to transfer between vehicles, i.e., ride with one vehicle for sometime and then transfer to another one, MHRS helps in attaining 30\% lower cost and 20\% more efficient utilization of fleets, as compared to the ride-sharing algorithms. This flexibility of multi-hop feature gives a seamless experience to customers and ride-sharing companies, and thus improves ride-sharing services.


Short-term Demand Forecasting for Online Car-hailing Services using Recurrent Neural Networks

Nejadettehad, Alireza, Mahini, Hamid, Bahrak, Behnam

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions about their travel route, departure time and travel origin selection, which can be helpful in traffic management. Multiple models and algorithms based on time series prediction and machine learning were applied to this issue and achieved acceptable results. Recently, the availability of sufficient data and computational power, motivates us to improve the prediction accuracy via deep-learning approaches. Recurrent neural networks have become one of the most popular methods for time series forecasting, however, due to the variety of these networks, the question that which type is the most appropriate one for this task remains unsolved. In this paper, we use three kinds of recurrent neural networks including simple RNN units, GRU and LSTM neural network to predict short-term traffic flow. The dataset from TAP30 Corporation is used for building the models and comparing RNNs with several well-known models, such as DEMA, LASSO and XGBoost. The results show that all three types of RNNs outperform the others, however, more simple RNNs such as simple recurrent units and GRU perform work better than LSTM in terms of accuracy and training time.


MOVI: A Model-Free Approach to Dynamic Fleet Management

Oda, Takuma, Joe-Wong, Carlee

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern vehicle fleets, e.g., for ridesharing platforms and taxi companies, can reduce passengers' waiting times by proactively dispatching vehicles to locations where pickup requests are anticipated in the future. Yet it is unclear how to best do this: optimal dispatching requires optimizing over several sources of uncertainty, including vehicles' travel times to their dispatched locations, as well as coordinating between vehicles so that they do not attempt to pick up the same passenger. While prior works have developed models for this uncertainty and used them to optimize dispatch policies, in this work we introduce a model-free approach. Specifically, we propose MOVI, a Deep Q-network (DQN)-based framework that directly learns the optimal vehicle dispatch policy. Since DQNs scale poorly with a large number of possible dispatches, we streamline our DQN training and suppose that each individual vehicle independently learns its own optimal policy, ensuring scalability at the cost of less coordination between vehicles. We then formulate a centralized receding-horizon control (RHC) policy to compare with our DQN policies. To compare these policies, we design and build MOVI as a large-scale realistic simulator based on 15 million taxi trip records that simulates policy-agnostic responses to dispatch decisions. We show that the DQN dispatch policy reduces the number of unserviced requests by 76% compared to without dispatch and 20% compared to the RHC approach, emphasizing the benefits of a model-free approach and suggesting that there is limited value to coordinating vehicle actions. This finding may help to explain the success of ridesharing platforms, for which drivers make individual decisions.